Publications by Lesley Gray


Slowdown of the Walker circulation at solar cycle maximum.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 116 (2019) 7186-7191

S Misios, LJ Gray, MF Knudsen, C Karoff, H Schmidt, JD Haigh

The Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) fluctuates on interannual and multidecadal timescales under the influence of internal variability and external forcings. Here, we provide observational evidence that the 11-y solar cycle (SC) affects the PWC on decadal timescales. We observe a robust reduction of east-west sea-level pressure gradients over the Indo-Pacific Ocean during solar maxima and the following 1-2 y. This reduction is associated with westerly wind anomalies at the surface and throughout the equatorial troposphere in the western/central Pacific paired with an eastward shift of convective precipitation that brings more rainfall to the central Pacific. We show that this is initiated by a thermodynamical response of the global hydrological cycle to surface warming, further amplified by atmosphere-ocean coupling, leading to larger positive ocean temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific than expected from simple radiative forcing considerations. The observed solar modulation of the PWC is supported by a set of coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model simulations forced only by SC irradiance variations. We highlight the importance of a muted hydrology mechanism that acts to weaken the PWC. Demonstration of this mechanism acting on the 11-y SC timescale adds confidence in model predictions that the same mechanism also weakens the PWC under increasing greenhouse gas forcing.


The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 145 (2019) 131-146

CH O'Reilly, A Weisheimer, T Woollings, LJ Gray, D MacLeod


Observed and Simulated Teleconnections Between the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Winter Atmospheric Circulation

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 124 (2019) 1219-1232

MB Andrews, JR Knight, AA Scaife, Y Lu, T Wu, LJ Gray, V Schenzinger

©2019 Crown copyright. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical stratosphere, with easterly and westerly zonal wind regimes alternating over a period of about 28 months. It appears to influence the Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric polar vortex and atmospheric circulation near the Earth's surface. However, the short observational record makes unequivocal identification of these surface connections challenging. To overcome this, we use a multicentury control simulation of a climate model with a realistic, spontaneously generated QBO to examine teleconnections with extratropical winter surface pressure patterns. Using a 30-hPa index of the QBO, we demonstrate that the observed teleconnection with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is likely to be real, and a teleconnection with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is probable, but not certain. Simulated QBO-AO teleconnections are robust, but appear weaker than in observations. Despite this, inconsistency with the observational record cannot be formally demonstrated. To assess the robustness of our results, we use an alternative measure of the QBO, which selects QBO phases with westerly or easterly winds extending over a wider range of altitudes than phases selected by the single-level index. We find increased strength and significance for both the AO and NAO responses, and better reproduction of the observed surface teleconnection patterns. Further, this QBO metric reveals that the simulated AO response is indeed likely to be weaker than observed. We conclude that the QBO can potentially provide another source of skill for Northern Hemisphere winter prediction, if its surface teleconnections can be accurately simulated.


Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13 (2018) ARTN 034007

H Ma, H Chen, L Gray, L Zhou, X Li, R Wang, S Zhu


Preconditioning of Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Shift Events

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31 (2018) 5417-5436

J Huang, W Tian, LJ Gray, J Zhang, Y Li, J Luo, H Tian


Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005-2016

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38 (2018) 5050-5076

J Robson, RT Sutton, A Archibald, F Cooper, M Christensen, LJ Gray, NP Holliday, C Macintosh, M McMillan, B Moat, M Russo, R Tilling, K Carslaw, D Desbruyeres, O Embury, DL Feltham, DP Grosvenor, S Josey, B King, A Lewis, GD McCarthy, C Merchant, AL New, CH O'Reilly, SM Osprey, K Read, A Scaife, A Shepherd, B Sinha, D Smeed, D Smith, A Ridout, T Woollings, M Yang


Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the UK ACSIS Program

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 99 (2018) 415-425

RT Sutton, GD McCarthy, J Robson, B Sinha, AT Archibald, LJ Gray


Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 11 (2018) 1009-1032

N Butchart, JA Anstey, K Hamilton, S Osprey, C McLandress, AC Bushell, Y Kawatani, Y-H Kim, F Lott, J Scinocca, TN Stockdale, M Andrews, O Bellprat, P Braesicke, C Cagnazzo, C-C Chen, H-Y Chun, M Dobrynin, RR Garcia, J Garcia-Serrano, LJ Gray, L Holt, T Kerzenmacher, H Naoe, H Pohlmann, JH Richter, AA Scaife, V Schenzinger, F Serva, S Versick, S Watanabe, K Yoshida, S Yukimoto


Preindustrial Control Simulations With HadGEM3-GC3.1 for CMIP6

JOURNAL OF ADVANCES IN MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS 10 (2018) 3049-3075

MB Menary, T Kuhlbrodt, J Ridley, MB Andrews, OB Dimdore-Miles, J Deshayes, R Eade, L Gray, S Ineson, J Mignot, CD Roberts, J Robson, RA Wood, P Xavier


Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 18 (2018) 8227-8247

LJ Gray, JA Anstey, Y Kawatani, H Lu, S Osprey, V Schenzinger


Stratospheric Response to the 11-Yr Solar Cycle: Breaking Planetary Waves, Internal Reflection, and Resonance

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30 (2017) 7169-7190

H Lu, LJ Gray, IP White, TJ Bracegirdle


Results from the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) during 2013-2017

(2017)

M Fujiwara, GL Manney, LJ Gray, S Tegtmeier


Report on the SPARC QBO Workshop: The QBO and its Global Influence - Past, Present and Future

(2017) 48

J Anstey, SM Osprey, N Butchart, K Hamilton, L Gray, M Baldwin


The 11-year solar cycle - Climate Influencer.

(2017)

MJ Brown, L Gray


Downward Wave Reflection as a Mechanism for the Stratosphere–Troposphere Response to the 11-Yr Solar Cycle

Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society 30 (2017) 2395-2414

H Lu, AA Scaife, GJ Marshall, J Turner, LJ Gray


Introduction to the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and overview of the reanalysis systems

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 17 (2017) 1417-1452

M Fujiwara, JS Wright, GL Manney, LJ Gray, J Anstey, T Birner, S Davis, EP Gerber, VL Harvey, MI Hegglin, CR Homeyer, JA Knox, K Kruger, A Lambert, CS Long, P Martineau, A Molod, BM Monge-Sanz, ML Santee, S Tegtmeier, S Chabrillat, DGH Tan, DR Jackson, S Polavarapu, GP Compo, R Dragani, W Ebisuzaki, Y Harada, C Kobayashi, W McCarty, K Onogi, S Pawson, A Simmons, K Wargan, JS Whitaker, C-Z Zou


Solar Influences on climate over the Atlantic / European Sector

RADIATION PROCESSES IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN 1810 (2017)

LJ Gray, W Ball, S Misios


Defining metrics of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in global climate models

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 10 (2017) 2157-2168

V Schenzinger, S Osprey, L Gray, N Butchart


Stratospheric polar vortex splits and displacements in the high-top CMIP5 climate models

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 121 (2016) 1400-1413

WJM Seviour, LJ Gray, DM Mitchell


Top ten research priorities for spinal cord injury: the methodology and results of a British priority setting partnership.

Spinal cord 54 (2016) 341-346

JJ van Middendorp, HC Allison, S Ahuja, D Bracher, C Dyson, J Fairbank, A Gall, A Glover, L Gray, WE Masri, A Uttridge, K Cowan

This is a mixed-method consensus development project.The objective of this study was to identify a top ten list of priorities for future research into spinal cord injury (SCI).The British Spinal Cord Injury Priority Setting Partnership was established in 2013 and completed in 2014. Stakeholders included consumer organisations, healthcare professional societies and caregivers.This partnership involved the following four key stages: (i) gathering of research questions, (ii) checking of existing research evidence, (iii) interim prioritisation and (iv) a final consensus meeting to reach agreement on the top ten research priorities. Adult individuals with spinal cord dysfunction because of trauma or non-traumatic causes, including transverse myelitis, and individuals with a cauda equina syndrome (henceforth grouped and referred to as SCI) were invited to participate in this priority setting partnership.We collected 784 questions from 403 survey respondents (290 individuals with SCI), which, after merging duplicate questions and checking systematic reviews for evidence, were reduced to 109 unique unanswered research questions. A total of 293 people (211 individuals with SCI) participated in the interim prioritisation process, leading to the identification of 25 priorities. At a final consensus meeting, a representative group of individuals with SCI, caregivers and health professionals agreed on their top ten research priorities.Following a comprehensive, rigorous and inclusive process, with participation from individuals with SCI, caregivers and health professionals, the SCI research agenda has been defined by people to whom it matters most and should inform the scope and future activities of funders and researchers for the years to come.The NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre provided core funding for this project.

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