Publications


Storm-Track Shifts under Climate Change: Toward a Mechanistic Understanding Using Baroclinic Mean Available Potential Energy

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 74 (2017) 93-110

C Mbengue, T Schneider


Stratospheric Response to the 11-year Solar Cycle: Breaking Planetary Waves, Internal Reflection and Resonance

Journal of Climate (2017)

H Lu, LJ Gray, IP White, TJ Bracegirdle


Report on the SPARC QBO Workshop: The QBO and its Global Influence - Past, Present and Future

(2017) 48

J Anstey, SM Osprey, N Butchart, K Hamilton, L Gray, M Baldwin


The 11-year solar cycle - Climate Influencer.

(2017)

MJ Brown, L Gray


Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on Global Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power Resource

JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY 56 (2017) 1483-1497

CJ Smith, JA Crook, R Crook, LS Jackson, SM Osprey, PM Forster


Synchronisation of the equatorial QBO by the annual cycle in tropical upwelling in a warming climate

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 142 (2016) 1111-1120

K Rajendran, IM Moroz, PL Read, SM Osprey


Oceanic Stochastic Parameterizations in a Seasonal Forecast System

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 144 (2016)

M Andrejczuk, FC Cooper, S Juricke, TN Palmer, A Weisheimer, L Zanna


The NuMI neutrino beam

NUCLEAR INSTRUMENTS & METHODS IN PHYSICS RESEARCH SECTION A-ACCELERATORS SPECTROMETERS DETECTORS AND ASSOCIATED EQUIPMENT 806 (2016) 279-306

P Adamson, K Andersonc, M Andrewsc, R Andrewsc, I Anghel, D Augustinec, A Aurisanob, S Avvakumov, DS Ayres, B Baller, B Barish, G Barr, WL Barrett, RH Bernstein, J Biggs, M Bishai, A Blake, V Bocean, GJ Bock, DJ Boehnlein, D Bogert, K Bourkland, SV Cao, CM Castromonte, S Childress, BC Choudhary, JAB Coelho, JH Cobb, L Corwin, D Crane, JP Cravens, D Cronin-Hennessy, RJ Ducar, JK De Jong, AV Devan, NE Devenish, MV Diwan, AR Erwin, D Crane, JP Cravens, D Cronin-Hennessy, RJ Ducar, JK De Jong, AV Devan, NE Devenish, MV Diwan, AR Erwin, CO Escobar, JJ Evans, E Falk, GJ Feldman, TH Fields, R Ford, MV Frohne, HR Gallagher, V Garkushak, RA Gomes, MC Goodman, P Gouffon, N Graf, R Gran, N Grossman, K Grzelak, A Habig, SR Hahn, D Harding, D Harris, PG Harris, J Hartnell, R Hatcher, S Hays, K Heller, A Holin, J Huang, J Hylen, A Ibrahim, D Indurthy, GM Irwin, Z Isvan, DE Jaffe, C James, D Jensen, J Johnstone, T Kafka, SMS Kasahara, G Koizumi, S Kopp, M Kordosky, A Kreymer, K Lang, C Laughton, G Lefeuvre, J Ling, PJ Litchfield, L Loiacono, P Lucas, WA Mann, A Marchionni, ML Marshak, N Mayer, C McGivern, MM Medeiros, R Mehdiyey, JR Meier, MD Messier, DG Michael, RH Milburn, JL Miller, WH Miller, SR Mishra, SM Sherc, CD Moore, J Morfin, L Mualem, S Mufson, S Murgia, M Murtagh, J Musser, D Naples, JK Nelson, HB Newman, RJ Nichol, JA Nowak, J O'Connor, WP Oliver, M Olsen, M Orchanian, S Osprey, RB Pahlka, J Paley, A Para, RB Patterson, T Patzak, Z Pavlovic, G Pawloski, A Perch, EA Peterson, DA Petyt, MM Pfuetzner, S Phan-Budd, RK Plunkett, N Poonthottathil, P Prieto, D Pushka, X Qiu, A Radovic, RA Rameika, J Ratchford, B Rebel, R Reilly, C Rosenfeld, HA Rubin, K Ruddick, MC Sanchez, N Saoulidou, L Sauer, J Schneps, D Schoo, A Schreckenberger, P Schreiner, P Shanahan, R Sharma, W Smart, C Smith, A Sousa, A Stefanik, N Tagg, RL Talaga, G Tassotto, J Thomas, J Thompson, MA Thomson, X Tian, A Timmons, D Tinsley, SC Tognini, R Toner, D Torretta, I Trostin, G Tzanakos, J Urheim, P Vahle, K Vaziri, E Villegas, B Viren, G Vogel, RC Webber, A Weber, RC Webb, A Wehmann, C White, L Whitehead, LH Whitehead, SG Wojcicki, ML Wong-Squires, T Yang, FX Yumiceva, V Zarucheisky, R Zwaska


Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 142 (2016) 1890-1903

LJ Gray, TJ Woollings, M Andrews, J Knight


The Use of Remotely Sensed Rainfall for Managing Drought Risk: A Case Study of Weather Index Insurance in Zambia

Remote Sensing 8 (2016) 342-342

E Black, E Tarnavsky, R Maidment, H Greatrex, A Mookerjee, T Quaife, M Brown


Managing drought risk in Africa

(2016)

E Black, E Tarnavsky, R Maidment, H Greatrex, MJ Brown


A new system for predicting agricultural drought

(2016)

MJ Brown, E Black, T Quaife, F Otu-Larbi


The 11-year solar cycle – mechanisms for surface impact.

(2016)

MJ Brown, L Gray


The land surface memory - a drought prediction tool

(2016)

MJ Brown, E Black, T Quaife, F Otu-Larbi

Food security in Africa is a major problem. Approximately 886mil lion people in Africa rely on agriculture as their main means of survival. They are therefore susceptible to changes in seasonal rains from year to year that can result in agricul tural drought. Agricultural drought is determined by low soil moisture content. Soil moisture res ponds to rainfall, but also depends on many other factors including the soil characteristic s and, crucially, on the past soil moisture. Seasonal rainfall forecasts are thus of limited us e when attempting to predict agricultural drought because they do not predict the soil moi sture, nor take account of the current and past values. Here we demonstrate that predictive skill can be gained from kno wledge of the current state of the land surface – how wet or dry the soil is – as the growing season evolves. This skill arises from the land surface memory - the soil moistur e content at a particular time depends to a large extent on the historical soil moisture. Reversing this, the state of t he soil moisture at a point in the future must depend somewhat on the st ate of the soil moisture now . By forcing a land surface model with observed data up to a present day and then repeatedly with historical data (to represent the range of poss ible future conditions) we show that it is possible to be confident of an ensuing ag ricultural drought 50 days ahead of the end of the growing season. This can be achieved without any rainfall forecast information, but requires the modelled soil moisture to be accu rate. The basic premise of the system is that after a certain date we can be confident of an ensuing drought because, no matter how much it rains, the soil moisture will not r ecover quickly enough to avoid one before the end of the growing season. We also present results from a current operational trial of a forecast system using this method for an undisclosed location in Northern Ghana.


Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 142 (2016) 928-941

S Misios, DM Mitchell, LJ Gray, K Tourpali, K Matthes, L Hood, H Schmidt, G Chiodo, R Thieblemont, E Rozanov, A Krivolutsky


An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation.

Science (New York, N.Y.) 353 (2016) 1424-1427

SM Osprey, N Butchart, JR Knight, AA Scaife, K Hamilton, JA Anstey, V Schenzinger, C Zhang

One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.


Signatures of naturally induced variability in the atmosphere using multiple reanalysis datasets

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 141 (2015) 2011-2031

DM Mitchell, LJ Gray, M Fujiwara, T Hibino, JA Anstey, W Ebisuzaki, Y Harada, C Long, S Misios, PA Stott, D Tan


A dynamical systems explanation of the Hurst effect and atmospheric low-frequency variability.

Scientific reports 5 (2015) 9068-

CL Franzke, SM Osprey, P Davini, NW Watkins

The Hurst effect plays an important role in many areas such as physics, climate and finance. It describes the anomalous growth of range and constrains the behavior and predictability of these systems. The Hurst effect is frequently taken to be synonymous with Long-Range Dependence (LRD) and is typically assumed to be produced by a stationary stochastic process which has infinite memory. However, infinite memory appears to be at odds with the Markovian nature of most physical laws while the stationarity assumption lacks robustness. Here we use Lorenz's paradigmatic chaotic model to show that regime behavior can also cause the Hurst effect. By giving an alternative, parsimonious, explanation using nonstationary Markovian dynamics, our results question the common belief that the Hurst effect necessarily implies a stationary infinite memory process. We also demonstrate that our results can explain atmospheric variability without the infinite memory previously thought necessary and are consistent with climate model simulations.


Observation of seasonal variation of atmospheric multiple-muon events in the MINOS Near and Far Detectors

PHYSICAL REVIEW D 91 (2015) ARTN 112006

P Adamson, I Anghel, A Aurisano, G Barr, M Bishai, A Blake, GJ Bock, D Bogert, SV Cao, CM Castromonte, S Childress, JAB Coelho, L Corwin, D Cronin-Hennessy, JK de Jong, AV Devan, NE Devenish, MV Diwan, CO Escobar, JJ Evans, E Falk, GJ Feldman, MV Frohne, HR Gallagher, RA Gomes, MC Goodman, P Gouffon, N Graf, R Gran, K Grzelak, A Habig, SR Hahn, J Hartnell, R Hatcher, A Holin, J Huang, J Hylen, GM Irwin, Z Isvan, C James, D Jensen, T Kafka, SMS Kasahara, G Koizumi, M Kordosky, A Kreymer, K Lang, J Ling, PJ Litchfield, P Lucas, WA Mann, ML Marshak, N Mayer, C McGivern, MM Medeiros, R Mehdiyev, JR Meier, MD Messier, WH Miller, SR Mishra, SM Sher, CD Moore, L Mualem, J Musser, D Naples, JK Nelson, HB Newman, RJ Nichol, JA Nowak, J O'Connor, M Orchanian, S Osprey, RB Pahlka, J Paley, RB Patterson, G Pawloski, A Perch, S Phan-Budd, RK Plunkett, N Poonthottathil, X Qiu, A Radovic, B Rebel, C Rosenfeld, HA Rubin, MC Sanchez, J Schneps, A Schreckenberger, P Schreiner, R Sharma, A Sousa, N Tagg, RL Talaga, J Thomas, MA Thomson, X Tian, A Timmons, SC Tognini, R Toner, D Torretta, J Urheim, P Vahle, B Viren, A Weber, RC Webb, C White, L Whitehead, LH Whitehead, SG Wojcicki, R Zwaska, MINOS Collaboration


Solar signals in CMIP-5 simulations: the ozone response

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 141 (2015) 2670-2689

LL Hood, S Misios, DM Mitchell, E Rozanov, LJ Gray, K Tourpali, K Matthes, H Schmidt, G Chiodo, R Thieblemont, D Shindell, A Krivolutsky

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