Publications


Observation of muon intensity variations by season with the MINOS near detector

PHYSICAL REVIEW D 90 (2014) ARTN 012010

P Adamson, I Anghel, A Aurisano, G Barr, M Bishai, A Blake, GJ Bock, D Bogert, SV Cao, CM Castromonte, S Childress, JAB Coelho, L Corwin, D Cronin-Hennessy, JK de Jong, AV Devan, NE Devenish, MV Diwan, CO Escobar, JJ Evans, E Falk, GJ Feldman, TH Fields, MV Frohne, HR Gallagher, RA Gomes, MC Goodman, P Gouffon, N Graf, R Gran, K Grzelak, A Habig, SR Hahn, J Hartnell, R Hatcher, A Holin, J Huang, J Hylen, GM Irwin, Z Isvan, C James, D Jensen, T Kafka, SMS Kasahara, G Koizumi, M Kordosky, A Kreymer, K Lang, J Ling, PJ Litchfield, P Lucas, WA Mann, ML Marshak, M Mathis, N Mayer, C McGivern, MM Medeiros, R Mehdiyev, JR Meier, MD Messier, WH Miller, SR Mishra, SM Sher, CD Moore, L Mualem, J Musser, D Naples, JK Nelson, HB Newman, RJ Nichol, JA Nowak, J O'Connor, M Orchanian, S Osprey, RB Pahlka, J Paley, RB Patterson, G Pawloski, A Perch, S Phan-Budd, RK Plunkett, N Poonthottathil, X Qiu, A Radovic, B Rebel, C Rosenfeld, HA Rubin, MC Sanchez, J Schneps, A Schreckenberger, P Schreiner, R Sharma, A Sousa, N Tagg, RL Talaga, J Thomas, MA Thomson, X Tian, A Timmons, SC Tognini, R Toner, D Torretta, J Urheim, P Vahle, B Viren, A Weber, RC Webb, C White, L Whitehead, LH Whitehead, SG Wojcicki, R Zwaska, MINOS Collaboration


Observation of muon intensity variations by season with the MINOS far detector

Physical Review D - Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology 81 (2010)

P Adamson, C Andreopoulos, KE Arms, R Armstrong, DJ Auty, DS Ayres, C Backhouse, J Barnett, G Barr, WL Barrett, BR Becker, M Bishai, A Blake, B Bock, GJ Bock, DJ Boehnlein, D Bogert, C Bower, S Cavanaugh, JD Chapman, D Cherdack, S Childress, BC Choudhary, JH Cobb, SJ Coleman, D Cronin-Hennessy, AJ Culling, IZ Danko, JK De Jong, NE Devenish, MV Diwan, M Dorman, CO Escobar, JJ Evans, E Falk, GJ Feldman, TH Fields, MV Frohne, HR Gallagher, A Godley, MC Goodman, P Gouffon, R Gran, EW Grashorn, K Grzelak, A Habig, D Harris, PG Harris, J Hartnell, R Hatcher, K Heller, A Himmel, A Holin, J Hylen, GM Irwin, Z Isvan, DE Jaffe, C James, D Jensen, T Kafka, SMS Kasahara, G Koizumi, S Kopp, M Kordosky, K Korman, DJ Koskinen, Z Krahn, A Kreymer, K Lang, J Ling, PJ Litchfield, L Loiacono, P Lucas, J Ma, WA Mann, ML Marshak, JS Marshall, N Mayer, AM McGowan, R Mehdiyev, JR Meier, MD Messier, CJ Metelko, DG Michael, WH Miller, SR Mishra, J Mitchell, CD Moore, J Morfín, L Mualem, S Mufson, J Musser, D Naples, JK Nelson, HB Newman, RJ Nichol, TC Nicholls, JP Ochoa-Ricoux, WP Oliver, T Osiecki, R Ospanov, S Osprey, J Paley, RB Patterson, T Patzak, G Pawloski, GF Pearce, EA Peterson, R Pittam, RK Plunkett, A Rahaman, RA Rameika, TM Raufer, B Rebel, J Reichenbacher, PA Rodrigues, C Rosenfeld, HA Rubin, VA Ryabov, MC Sanchez, N Saoulidou, J Schneps, P Schreiner, P Shanahan, W Smart, C Smith, A Sousa, B Speakman, P Stamoulis, M Strait, N Tagg, RL Talaga, J Thomas, MA Thomson, JL Thron, G Tinti, R Toner, VA Tsarev, G Tzanakos, J Urheim, P Vahle, B Viren, M Watabe, A Weber, RC Webb, N West, C White, L Whitehead, SG Wojcicki, DM Wright, T Yang, M Zois, K Zhang, R Zwaska

The temperature of the upper atmosphere affects the height of primary cosmic ray interactions and the production of high-energy cosmic ray muons which can be detected deep underground. The MINOS far detector at Soudan, MN, has collected over 67×106 cosmic ray induced muons. The underground muon rate measured over a period of five years exhibits a 4% peak-to-peak seasonal variation which is highly correlated with the temperature in the upper atmosphere. The coefficient, αT, relating changes in the muon rate to changes in atmospheric temperature was found to be αT=0.873±0. 009(stat)±0.010(syst). Pions and kaons in the primary hadronic interactions of cosmic rays in the atmosphere contribute differently to αT due to the different masses and lifetimes. This allows the measured value of αT to be interpreted as a measurement of the K/π ratio for Ep 7TeV of 0.12-0.05+0.07, consistent with the expectation from collider experiments. © 2010 The American Physical Society.


Interaction of gravity waves with the QBO: A satellite perspective

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 119 (2014) 2329-2355

M Ern, F Ploeger, P Preusse, JC Gille, LJ Gray, S Kalisch, MG Mlynczak, RJM III, M Riese


Mechanisms for the Holton-Tan relationship and its decadal variation

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 119 (2014) 2811-2830

H Lu, TJ Bracegirdle, T Phillips, A Bushell, L Gray


How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Stratospheric Polar Vortex?

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 71 (2014) 391-409

PAG Watson, LJ Gray


Does the ECMWF IFS convection parameterisation with stochastic physics correctly reproduce relationships between convection and the large-scale state?

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (2014) 141006111707007-141006111707007

PAG Watson, HM Christensen, TN Palmer


Skillful Seasonal Prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic Ozone

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 27 (2014) 7462-7474

WJM Seviour, SC Hardiman, LJ Gray, N Butchart, C MacLachlan, AA Scaife


The stratospheric wintertime response to applied extratropical torques and its relationship with the annular mode

Climate Dynamics Springer Verlag (2014)

PAG Watson, LJ Gray

The response of the wintertime Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere to applied extratropical zonally symmetric zonal torques, simulated by a primitive equation model of the middle atmosphere, is presented. This is relevant to understanding the effect of gravity wave drag (GWD) in models and the influence of natural forcings such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), solar cycle and volcanic eruptions on the polar vortex. There is a strong feedback due to planetary waves, which approximately cancels the direct effect of the torque on the zonal acceleration in the steady state and leads to an EP flux convergence response above the torque’s location. The residual circulation response is very different to that predicted assuming wave feedbacks are negligible. The results are consistent with the predictions of ray theory, with applied westerly torques increasing the meridional potential vorticity gradient, thus encouraging greater upward planetary wave propagation into the stratosphere. The steady state circulation response to torques applied at high latitudes closely resembles the Northern annular mode (NAM) in perpetual January simulations. This behaviour is analogous to that shown by the Lorenz system and tropospheric models. Imposed westerly high-latitude torques lead counter-intuitively to an easterly zonal mean zonal wind (Formula presented.) response at high latitudes, due to the wave feedbacks. However, in simulations with a seasonal cycle, the feedbacks are qualitatively similar but weaker, and the long-term response is less NAM-like and no longer easterly at high latitudes. This is consistent with ray theory and differences in climatological (Formula presented.) between the two types of simulations. The response to a tropospheric wave forcing perturbation is also NAM-like. These results suggest that dynamical feedbacks tend to make the long-term NH extratropical stratospheric response to arbitrary external forcings NAM-like, but only if the feedbacks are sufficiently strong. This may explain why the observed polar vortex responses to natural forcings such as the QBO and ENSO are NAM-like. The results imply that wave feedbacks must be understood and accurately modelled in order to understand and predict the influence of GWD and other external forcings on the polar vortex, and that biases in a model’s climatology will cause biases in these feedbacks.


Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 119 (2014) ARTN 2013JD021403

E Manzini, AY Karpechko, J Anstey, MP Baldwin, RX Black, C Cagnazzo, N Calvo, A Charlton-Perez, B Christiansen, P Davini, E Gerber, M Giorgetta, L Gray, SC Hardiman, Y-Y Lee, DR Marsh, BA McDaniel, A Purich, AA Scaife, D Shindell, S-W Son, S Watanabe, G Zappa


Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact on climate modelling

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 13 (2013) 3945-3977

I Ermolli, K Matthes, TD de Wit, NA Krivova, K Tourpali, M Weber, YC Unruh, L Gray, U Langematz, P Pilewskie, E Rozanov, W Schmutz, A Shapiro, SK Solanki, TN Woods


Multi-model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases and the role of resolution

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Blackwell Publishing Ltd 118 (2013) 3956-3971

JA Anstey, P Davini, LJ Gray, TJ Woollings, N Butchart, C Cagnazzo, B Christiansen, SC Hardiman, SM Osprey, S Yang

Blocking of the tropospheric jet stream during Northern Hemisphere winter (December-January-February) is examined in a multi-model ensemble of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The CMIP5 models exhibit large biases in blocking frequency and related biases in tropospheric jet latitude, similar to earlier generations of GCMs. Underestimated blocking at high latitudes, especially over Europe, is common. In general, model biases decrease as model resolution increases. Increased blocking frequency at high latitudes in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins, as well as more realistic variability of Atlantic jet latitude, are associated with increased vertical resolution in the mid-troposphere to lowermost stratosphere. Finer horizontal resolution is associated with higher blocking frequency at all latitudes in the Atlantic basin but appears to have no systematic impact on blocking near Greenland or in the Pacific basin. Results from the CMIP5 analysis are corroborated by additional controlled experiments using selected GCMs. Key PointsCMIP5 models have large blocking biases and associated jet biasesIncreased spatial resolution is associated with reduced blocking and jet biasesVertical and horizontal resolution give blocking changes in different regions ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


Stratospheric variability in 20th Century CMIP5 simulations of the Met Office climate model: High-top versus low-top

J CLIM 26 (2013) 5

SM Osprey, LJ Gray, SC Hardiman, N Butchart, T Hinton


A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability

Geophysical Research Letters 40 (2013) 434-439

AA Scaife, S Ineson, JR Knight, L Gray, K Kodera, DM Smith

Variability in solar irradiance has been connected to changes in surface climate in the North Atlantic through both observational and climate modelling studies which suggest a response in the atmospheric circulation that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation or its hemispheric equivalent the Arctic Oscillation. It has also been noted that this response appears to follow the changes in solar irradiance by a few years, depending on the exact indicator of solar variability. Here we propose and test a mechanism for this lag based on the known impact of atmospheric circulation on the Atlantic Ocean, the extended memory of ocean heat content anomalies, and their subsequent feedback onto the atmosphere. We use results from climate model experiments to develop a simple model for the relationship between solar variability and North Atlantic climate. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


The Influence of Stratospheric Vortex Displacements and Splits on Surface Climate

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 26 (2013) 2668-2682

DM Mitchell, LJ Gray, J Anstey, MP Baldwin, AJ Charlton-Perez


Global observations of gravity wave intermittency and its impact on the observed momentum flux morphology

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Blackwell Publishing Ltd 118 (2013) 10980-10993

CJ Wright, SM Osprey, JC Gille

Three years of gravity wave observations from the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder instrument on NASA's Aura satellite are examined. We produce estimates of the global distribution of gravity wave momentum flux as a function of individual observed wave packets. The observed distribution at the 25 km altitude level is dominated by the small proportion of wave packets with momentum fluxes greater than ∼0.5 mPa. Depending on latitude and season, these wave packets only comprise ∼7-25% of observations, but are shown to be almost entirely responsible for the morphology of the observed global momentum flux distribution. Large-amplitude wave packets are found to be more important over orographic regions than over flat ocean regions, and to be especially high in regions poleward of 40°S during austral winter. The momentum flux carried by the largest packets relative to the distribution mean is observed to decrease with height over orographic wave generation regions, but to increase with height at tropical latitudes; the mesospheric intermittency resulting is broadly equivalent in both cases. Consistent with previous studies, waves in the top 10% of the extratropical distribution are observed to carry momentum fluxes more than twice the mean and waves in the top 1% more than 10× the mean, and the Gini coefficient is found to characterize the observed distributions well. These results have significant implications for gravity wave modeling. Key Points Observed GW distribution dominated by wave packets with MF>0.5 mPa Intermittency higher over orography Gini coefficient confirmed as a good metric for wave intermittency ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.


The impact of stratospheric resolution on the detectability of climate change signals in the free atmosphere

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 40 (2013) 937-942

DM Mitchell, PA Stott, LJ Gray, MR Allen, FC Lott, N Butchart, SC Hardiman, SM Osprey


Multi-model analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: Model biases and the role of resolution

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 118 (2013) 3956-3971

JA Anstey, P Davini, LJ Gray, TJ Woollings, N Butchart, C Cagnazzo, B Christiansen, SC Hardiman, SM Osprey, S Yang


A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 118 (2013) 13405-13420

LJ Gray, AA Scaife, DM Mitchell, S Osprey, S Ineson, S Hardiman, N Butchart, J Knight, R Sutton, K Kodera


A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Blackwell Publishing Ltd 118 (2013) 13405-13420

LJ Gray, AA Scaife, DM Mitchell, S Osprey, S Ineson, S Hardiman, N Butchart, J Knight, R Sutton, K Kodera

The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870-2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed. Key Points 11-year solar signal detected over N. Atlantic/Europe Signal is evident if data are lagged by ~3 years HadGEM climate model simulates signal but not the lag ©2013. The Authors.


Report on the 3rd SPARC DynVar Workshop on Modelling the Dynamics and Variability of the Stratosphere-Troposphere System

(2013) 41

E Manzini, A Charlton-Perez, E Gerber, T Birner, A Butler, S Hardiman, A Karpechko, F Lott, A Maycock, SM Osprey, O Tripathi, T Shaw, M Sigmond