Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 57 (2005) 265-279
Insight into the likely weather several months in advance would be of great economic and societal value. The DEMETER project has made coordinated multi-model, multi-initial-condition simulations of the global weather as observed over the last 40 years; transforming these model simulations into forecasts is non-trivial. One approach is to extract merely a single forecast (e.g. best-first-guess) designed to minimize some measure of forecast error. A second approach would be to construct a full probability forecast. This paper explores a third option, namely to see how often this collection of simulations can be said to capture the target value, in the sense that the target lies within the bounding box of the forecasts. The DEMETER forecast system is shown to often capture the 2-m temperature target in this sense over continental areas at lead times up to six months. The target is captured over 95% of the time at over a third of the grid points and maintains a bounding box range less than that of the local climatology. Such information is of immediate value from a user's perspective. Implications for the minimum ensemble size as well as open foundational issues in translating a set of multi-model multi-initial-condition simulations into a forecast are discussed; in particular, those involving 'bias correction' are consider. Copyright © Blackwell Munksgaard, 2005.
Influence of a stochastic parameterization on the frequency of occurrence of North Pacific weather regimes in the ECMWF model
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 32 (2005) ARTN L23811
ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES 33 (2005) 163-193
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 86 (2005) 519-+
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - I. Basic concept
TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY 57 (2005) 219-233
The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination
TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY 57 (2005) 234-252
A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model
TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY 57 (2005) 464-475
Recurrent climate winter regimes in reconstructed and modelled 500 hPa geopotential height fields over the North Atlantic/European sector 1659-1990
CLIMATE DYNAMICS 24 (2005) 809-822
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360 (2005) 1991-1998
The development of multi-model ensembles for reliable predictions of inter-annual climate fluctuations and climate change, and their application to health, agronomy and water management, are discussed.
Geophysical Research Letters 32 (2005) 1-5
Using a multi-model multi-scenario ensemble of integrations made for the forthcoming fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures at the end of the 21st Century is estimated. In this study an extreme temperature is defined as lying above the 95 percentile of the simulated temperature distribution for 20th Century climate. The model probability of extreme warm seasons is heterogeneous over the globe and rises to over 90% in large parts of the tropics. This would correspond to an average return period of such anomalous warm seasons of almost one year. The reliability of these results is assessed using the bounding box technique, previously used to quantify the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts. It is shown that the dramatic increase in extreme warm seasons arises from the combined effect of a shift and a broadening of the temperature distributions. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.
Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 190 (2004) 153-166
Shadowing trajectories can play an important role in assessing the reliability of forecasting models, they can also play an important role in providing state estimates for ensemble forecasts. Gradient descent methods provide one approach for obtaining shadowing trajectories, which have been shown to have many useful properties. There remains the important question whether shadowing trajectories can be found in very high-dimensional systems, like weather and climate models. The principle impediment is the need to compute the derivative (or adjoint) of the system dynamics. In this paper we investigate gradient descent methods that use limited derivative information. We demonstrate the methods with an application to a moderately high-dimensional system using no derivative information at all. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights rserved.
CLIMATE IN HISTORICAL TIMES: TOWARDS A SYNTHESIS OF HOLOCENCE PROXY DATA AND CLIMATE MODELS (2004) 13-41
CLIMATE IN HISTORICAL TIMES: TOWARDS A SYNTHESIS OF HOLOCENCE PROXY DATA AND CLIMATE MODELS (2004) 365-382
Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER)
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 85 (2004) 853-+
A granular permutation-based representation of complex numbers and quaternions: elements of a possible realistic quantum theory
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 460 (2004) 1039-1055
Improved radio occultation sounding of the Arctic atmosphere using simulations with a high resolution atmospheric model
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 29 (2004) 277-286
Radio occultation experiments have been simulated for the Arctic region on the basis of the regional atmospheric model HIRHAM4. Irregular structures in the atmosphere produce a violation of the quasi-sphericity in the radio signal propagation and exert a strong influence on the accuracy of atmospheric profiles retrieved by the radio occultation technique. Errors in radio occultation data are spatially localised and associated with gradients in atmospheric structures. Local errors reach 2% in retrieved profiles of refractivity corresponding to an error of 6 K in temperature. Therefore mesoscale variations in atmospheric parameter gradients in a specified region must be taken into account when interpreting radio occultation data. We show, that a correction functional can be developed using the refractivity index field calculated from the regional model in order to improve the radio occultation retrieval of atmospheric parameters. This functional is constructed from instantaneous model outputs, as well as from temporally averaged fields of refractivity using data of the HIRHAM4 model for the Arctic atmosphere. The correction functional derived from monthly averaged data reduced the retrieval errors of refractivity, temperature, and pressure in the troposphere, in particular, temperature retrieval errors are reduced up to 1 K. Application of this kind of functional depends on whether the model used for the construction of the functional is able to simulate the real mesoscale atmospheric structures. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 129 (2003) 2401-2423