Publications


Examination of targeting methods in a simplified setting

TELLUS B 52 (2000) 391-411

CA Reynolds, R Gelaro, TN Palmer


Forecasting disease risk with seasonal climate predictions

LANCET 355 (2000) 1559-1560

MC Thomson, T Palmer, AP Morse, M Cresswell, SJ Conner


Seasonal skill and predictability of ECMWF PROVOST ensembles

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 126 (2000) 2035-2067

C Brankovic, TN Palmer


Arctic and Antarctic ozone layer observations: Chemical and dynamical aspects of variability and long-term changes in the polar stratosphere

Polar Research 19 (2000) 193-204

M Rex, K Dethloff, D Handorf, A Herber, R Lehmann, R Neuber, J Notholt, A Rinke, P von der Gathen, A Weisheimer, H Gernandt

The altitude dependent variability of ozone in the polar stratosphere is regularly observed by balloon-borne ozonesonde observations at Neumayer Station (70°S) in the Antarctic and at Koldewey Station (79°N) in the Arctic. The reasons for observed seasonal and interannual variability and long-term changes are discussed. Differences between the hemispheres are identified and discussed in light of differing dynamical and chemical conditions. Since the mid-1980s, rapid chemical ozone loss has been recorded in the lower Antarctic stratosphere during the spring season. Using coordinated ozone soundings in some Arctic winters, similar chemical ozone loss rates have been detected related to periods of low temperatures. The currently observed cooling trend of the stratosphere, potentially caused by the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may further strengthen chemical ozone removal in the Arctic. However, the role of internal climate oscillations in observed temperature trends is still uncertain. First results of a 10 000 year integration of a low order climate model indicate significant internal climate variability, on decadal time scales, that may alter the effect of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the polar stratosphere.


North Atlantic oscillation: Diagnosis and simulation of decadal variability and its long-period evolution

Izvestiya - Atmospheric and Ocean Physics 36 (2000) 555-565

II Mokhov, AV Eliseev, D Handorf, VK Petukhov, K Dethloff, A Weisheimer, DV Khvorost'yanov

Two 1000-year numerical experiments based on the IFA RAN global climate model, the first with completely interacting atmosphere and ocean and the second with a fixed climatic mean annual cycle of sea surface temperature, are analyzed. In both cases, a quasi-decadal cyclicity (QDC), but with substantially different amplitude-frequency characteristics, is detected for the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter. Significant changes in the QDC regimes from one century to another are observed in the model. A comparison of the numerical results with empirical data and reconstructions reveal a fairly good agreement of the QDC amplitude and periods for winter NAO regimes in the model with completely interacting atmosphere and ocean for individual model subperiods on the order of a century. The model results suggest that interdecadal NAO variations of natural origin can be noticeably strengthened in the climate system without any influence of external, in particular, anthropogenic factors. In the case of a fixed annual cycle of SST, the QDC amplitudes are underestimated several times by the model, and no positive correlation is observed between the amplitudes and periods of the NAO QDC in contrast to the empirical data, reconstructions, and the model with completely interacting atmosphere and ocean.


Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate

REPORTS ON PROGRESS IN PHYSICS 63 (2000) 71-116

TN Palmer


Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 125 (1999) 2887-2908

R Buizza, M Miller, TN Palmer


3D-Var Hessian singular vectors and their potential use in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 125 (1999) 2333-2351

J Barkmeijer, R Buizza, TN Palmer


A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 12 (1999) 575-591

TN Palmer


Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes

NATURE 398 (1999) 799-802

S Corti, F Molteni, TN Palmer


The effect of land-surface feedbacks on the monsoon circulation

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 125 (1999) 1527-1550

L Ferranti, JM Slingo, TN Palmer, BJ Hoskins


Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: Two transplant case-studies

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 125 (1999) 2487-2515

MSJ Harrison, TN Palmer, DS Richardson, R Buizza


Singular vectors, metrics, and adaptive observations

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 55 (1998) 633-653

TN Palmer, R Gelaro, J Barkmeijer, R Buizza


Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 126 (1998) 2503-2518

R Buizza, TN Palmer


Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS 103 (1998) 14451-14510

PJ Webster, VO Magana, TN Palmer, J Shukla, RA Tomas, M Yanai, T Yasunari


A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate predictability: Rossby's legacy

NINTH SYMPOSIUM ON GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES (1998) 351-351

TN Palmer, AM SOC, AM SOC


Sensitivity analysis of forecast errors and the construction of optimal perturbations using singular vectors

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 55 (1998) 1012-1037

R Gelaro, R Buizza, TN Palmer, E Klinker


Impact of model resolution and ensemble size on the performance of an Ensemble Prediction System

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 124 (1998) 1935-1960

R Buizza, T Petroliagis, T Palmer, J Barkmeijer, M Hamrud, A Hollingsworth, A Simmons, N Wedi


Decaying singular vectors and their impact on analysis and forecast correction

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 55 (1998) 3005-3023

CA Reynolds, TN Palmer


Nonlinear dynamics and climate change: Rossby's legacy

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 79 (1998) 1411-1423

TN Palmer