Publications
Internal climate variability in global and regional climate models
CLIMATE IN HISTORICAL TIMES: TOWARDS A SYNTHESIS OF HOLOCENCE PROXY DATA AND CLIMATE MODELS (2004) 365-382
Extratropical low-frequency variability in a three-level quasi-geostrophic atmospheric model with different spectral resolution
Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres 108 (2003) ACL 8-1 ACL 8-20
Validation of water vapour profiles from GPS radio occultations in the Arctic
FIRST CHAMP MISSION RESULTS FOR GRAVITY, MAGNETIC AND ATMOSPHERIC STUDIES (2003) 441-446
Radar-echo tracking by use of invariant moments.
Appl Opt 42 (2003) 5891-5896
A number of techniques to track rainfall patterns by use of radar observations have been developed over the years. We present a method for radar-echo tracking based on Hu invariant moments. The method has been tried on several sequences of test images, and the derived displacement fields were in good agreement with the real motions of the tested objects. For the real data obtained from the conventional meteorological radar in Legionowo the method occasionally failed when changes in the radar echo between observations were too large.
Benefits of increased resolution in the ECMWF ensemble system and comparison with poor-man's ensembles
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 129 (2003) 1269-1288
Forcing singular vectors and other sensitive model structures
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 129 (2003) 2401-2423
Predictability of weather and climate: From theory to practice - From days to decades
REALIZING TERACOMPUTING (2003) 1-18
Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate.
Nature 415 (2002) 512-514
Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide will almost certainly lead to changes in global mean climate. But because--by definition--extreme events are rare, it is significantly more difficult to quantify the risk of extremes. Ensemble-based probabilistic predictions, as used in short- and medium-term forecasts of weather and climate, are more useful than deterministic forecasts using a 'best guess' scenario to address this sort of problem. Here we present a probabilistic analysis of 19 global climate model simulations with a generic binary decision model. We estimate that the probability of total boreal winter precipitation exceeding two standard deviations above normal will increase by a factor of five over parts of the UK over the next 100 years. We find similar increases in probability for the Asian monsoon region in boreal summer, with implications for flooding in Bangladesh. Further practical applications of our techniques would be helped by the use of larger ensembles (for a more complete sampling of model uncertainty) and a wider range of scenarios at a resolution adequate to analyse average-size river basins.
The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 128 (2002) 747-774
Potential improvement to forecasts of two severe storms using targeted observations
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 128 (2002) 1641-1670
On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models
Atmospheric Science Letters 2 (2001) LI-LIX
On the structure and variability of atmospheric circulation regimes in coupled climate models
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS 2 (2001) 72-80
A nonlinear dynamical perspective on model error: A proposal for non-local stochastic-dynamic parametrization in weather and climate prediction models
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 127 (2001) 279-304
Tropical singular vectors computed with linearized diabatic physics
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 127 (2001) 685-708
Ensemble prediction of tropical cyclones using targeted diabatic singular vectors
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 127 (2001) 709-731
A probability and decision-model analysis of a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 14 (2001) 3212-3226
Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate
REPORTS ON PROGRESS IN PHYSICS 63 (2000) 71-116
Observational error structures and the value of advanced assimilation techniques
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 57 (2000) 1327-1340
