Publications


Seasonal Sensitivity of the Hadley Cell and Cross-Hemispheric Responses to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45 (2018) 2533-2541

HS Baker, C Mbengue, T Woollings


First Successful Hindcasts of the 2016 Disruption of the Stratospheric Quasi-biennial Oscillation

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45 (2018) 1602-1610

S Watanabe, K Hamilton, S Osprey, Y Kawatani, E Nishimoto


Linking Hadley Circulation and Storm Tracks in a Conceptual Model of the Atmospheric Energy Balance

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 75 (2018) 841-856

C Mbengue, T Schneider


Report on the Joint SPARC Dynamics and Observations Work- shop: SATIO-TCS, FISAPS and QBOi, Kyoto, Japan

(2018) 50

J Anstey, S Yoden, M Geller, SM Osprey, K Hamilton, N Butchart


Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13 (2018) ARTN 034007

H Ma, H Chen, L Gray, L Zhou, X Li, R Wang, S Zhu


Descent rate models of the synchronization of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation by the annual cycle in tropical upwelling

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences American Meteorological Society (2018)

K Rajendran, I Moroz, SM Osprey, P Read

The response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to an imposed mean upwelling with a periodic modulation is studied, by modelling the dynamics of the zero wind line at the equator using a class of equations known as ‘descent rate’ models. These are simple mathematical models that capture the essence of QBO synchronization by focusing on the dynamics of the height of the zero wind line. A heuristic descent rate model for the zero wind line is described, and is shown to capture many of the synchronization features seen in previous studies of the QBO. Using a simple transformation, it is then demonstrated that the standard Holton-Lindzen model of the QBO can itself be put into the form of a descent rate model if a quadratic velocity profile is assumed below the zero wind line. The resulting non-autonomous ordinary differential equation captures much of the synchronization behaviour observed in the full Holton-Lindzen partial differential equation. The new class of models provides a novel framework within which to understand synchronization of the QBO, and we demonstrate a close relationship between these models and the circle map well-known in the mathematics literature. Finally, we analyse reanalysis datasets to validate some of the predictions of our descent rate models, and find statistically significant evidence for synchronization of the QBO that is consistent with model behaviour.


Overview of experiment design and comparison of models participating in phase 1 of the SPARC Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi)

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 11 (2018) 1009-1032

N Butchart, JA Anstey, K Hamilton, S Osprey, C McLandress, AC Bushell, Y Kawatani, Y-H Kim, F Lott, J Scinocca, TN Stockdale, M Andrews, O Bellprat, P Braesicke, C Cagnazzo, C-C Chen, H-Y Chun, M Dobrynin, RR Garcia, J Garcia-Serrano, LJ Gray, L Holt, T Kerzenmacher, H Naoe, H Pohlmann, JH Richter, AA Scaife, V Schenzinger, F Serva, S Versick, S Watanabe, K Yoshida, S Yukimoto


The roles of static stability and tropical–extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

Climate Dynamics (2018) 1-17

CO Mbengue, T Woollings, HF Dacre, KI Hodges

© 2018 The Author(s) Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector’s interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill.


Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45 (2018) 1020-1029

BH Samset, M Sand, CJ Smith, SE Bauer, PM Forster, JS Fuglestvedt, S Osprey, C-F Schleussner


Storm-Track Shifts under Climate Change: Toward a Mechanistic Understanding Using Baroclinic Mean Available Potential Energy

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 74 (2017) 93-110

C Mbengue, T Schneider


Stratospheric Response to the 11-Yr Solar Cycle: Breaking Planetary Waves, Internal Reflection, and Resonance

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30 (2017) 7169-7190

H Lu, LJ Gray, IP White, TJ Bracegirdle


Report on the SPARC QBO Workshop: The QBO and its Global Influence - Past, Present and Future

(2017) 48

J Anstey, SM Osprey, N Butchart, K Hamilton, L Gray, M Baldwin


The 11-year solar cycle - Climate Influencer.

(2017)

MJ Brown, L Gray


Downward Wave Reflection as a Mechanism for the Stratosphere–Troposphere Response to the 11-Yr Solar Cycle

Journal of Climate 30 (2017) 2395-2414

H Lu, AA Scaife, GJ Marshall, J Turner, LJ Gray


Introduction to the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and overview of the reanalysis systems

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 17 (2017) 1417-1452

M Fujiwara, JS Wright, GL Manney, LJ Gray, J Anstey, T Birner, S Davis, EP Gerber, VL Harvey, MI Hegglin, CR Homeyer, JA Knox, K Kruger, A Lambert, CS Long, P Martineau, A Molod, BM Monge-Sanz, ML Santee, S Tegtmeier, S Chabrillat, DGH Tan, DR Jackson, S Polavarapu, GP Compo, R Dragani, W Ebisuzaki, Y Harada, C Kobayashi, W McCarty, K Onogi, S Pawson, A Simmons, K Wargan, JS Whitaker, C-Z Zou


Impacts of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on Global Solar Photovoltaic and Concentrating Solar Power Resource

JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY 56 (2017) 1483-1497

CJ Smith, JA Crook, R Crook, LS Jackson, SM Osprey, PM Forster


Eddy-Driven Jet Sensitivity to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30 (2017) 6413-6431

HS Baker, T Woollings, C Mbengue


Solar Influences on climate over the Atlantic / European Sector

RADIATION PROCESSES IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN 1810 (2017)

LJ Gray, W Ball, S Misios


Defining metrics of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in global climate models

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 10 (2017) 2157-2168

V Schenzinger, S Osprey, L Gray, N Butchart


The NuMI neutrino beam

NUCLEAR INSTRUMENTS & METHODS IN PHYSICS RESEARCH SECTION A-ACCELERATORS SPECTROMETERS DETECTORS AND ASSOCIATED EQUIPMENT 806 (2016) 279-306

P Adamson, K Andersonc, M Andrewsc, R Andrewsc, I Anghel, D Augustinec, A Aurisanob, S Avvakumov, DS Ayres, B Baller, B Barish, G Barr, WL Barrett, RH Bernstein, J Biggs, M Bishai, A Blake, V Bocean, GJ Bock, DJ Boehnlein, D Bogert, K Bourkland, SV Cao, CM Castromonte, S Childress, BC Choudhary, JAB Coelho, JH Cobb, L Corwin, D Crane, JP Cravens, D Cronin-Hennessy, RJ Ducar, JK De Jong, AV Devan, NE Devenish, MV Diwan, AR Erwin, D Crane, JP Cravens, D Cronin-Hennessy, RJ Ducar, JK De Jong, AV Devan, NE Devenish, MV Diwan, AR Erwin, CO Escobar, JJ Evans, E Falk, GJ Feldman, TH Fields, R Ford, MV Frohne, HR Gallagher, V Garkushak, RA Gomes, MC Goodman, P Gouffon, N Graf, R Gran, N Grossman, K Grzelak, A Habig, SR Hahn, D Harding, D Harris, PG Harris, J Hartnell, R Hatcher, S Hays, K Heller, A Holin, J Huang, J Hylen, A Ibrahim, D Indurthy, GM Irwin, Z Isvan, DE Jaffe, C James, D Jensen, J Johnstone, T Kafka, SMS Kasahara, G Koizumi, S Kopp, M Kordosky, A Kreymer, K Lang, C Laughton, G Lefeuvre, J Ling, PJ Litchfield, L Loiacono, P Lucas, WA Mann, A Marchionni, ML Marshak, N Mayer, C McGivern, MM Medeiros, R Mehdiyey, JR Meier, MD Messier, DG Michael, RH Milburn, JL Miller, WH Miller, SR Mishra, SM Sherc, CD Moore, J Morfin, L Mualem, S Mufson, S Murgia, M Murtagh, J Musser, D Naples, JK Nelson, HB Newman, RJ Nichol, JA Nowak, J O'Connor, WP Oliver, M Olsen, M Orchanian, S Osprey, RB Pahlka, J Paley, A Para, RB Patterson, T Patzak, Z Pavlovic, G Pawloski, A Perch, EA Peterson, DA Petyt, MM Pfuetzner, S Phan-Budd, RK Plunkett, N Poonthottathil, P Prieto, D Pushka, X Qiu, A Radovic, RA Rameika, J Ratchford, B Rebel, R Reilly, C Rosenfeld, HA Rubin, K Ruddick, MC Sanchez, N Saoulidou, L Sauer, J Schneps, D Schoo, A Schreckenberger, P Schreiner, P Shanahan, R Sharma, W Smart, C Smith, A Sousa, A Stefanik, N Tagg, RL Talaga, G Tassotto, J Thomas, J Thompson, MA Thomson, X Tian, A Timmons, D Tinsley, SC Tognini, R Toner, D Torretta, I Trostin, G Tzanakos, J Urheim, P Vahle, K Vaziri, E Villegas, B Viren, G Vogel, RC Webber, A Weber, RC Webb, A Wehmann, C White, L Whitehead, LH Whitehead, SG Wojcicki, ML Wong-Squires, T Yang, FX Yumiceva, V Zarucheisky, R Zwaska

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