# Publications

## Constraining stochastic parametrisation schemes using high-resolution simulations

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Wiley (0)

## Optimising the use of ensemble information in numerical weather forecasts of wind power generation

Environmental Research Letters IOP Publishing **14** (0) 124086-124086

## Introducing the Probabilistic Earth-System Model: Examining The Impact of Stochasticity in EC-Earth v3.2

Geoscientific Model Development European Geosciences Union (0)

<jats:p>&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Abstract.&lt;/strong&gt; We introduce and study the impact of three stochastic schemes in the EC-Earth climate model, two atmospheric schemes and one stochastic land scheme. These form the basis for a probabilistic earth-system model in atmosphere-only mode. Stochastic parametrisations have become standard in several operational weather-forecasting models, in particular due to their beneficial impact on model spread. In recent years, stochastic schemes in the atmospheric component of a model have been shown to improve aspects important for the models long-term climate, such as ENSO, North Atlantic weather regimes and the Indian monsoon. Stochasticity in the land-component has been shown to improve variability of soil processes and improve the representation of heatwaves over Europe. However, the raw impact of such schemes on the model mean is less well studied, It is shown that the inclusion all three schemes notably change the model mean state. While many of the impacts are beneficial, some are too large in amplitude, leading to large changes in the model's energy budget. This implies that in order to keep the benefits of stochastic physics without shifting the mean state too far from observations, a full re-tuning of the model will typically be required.&lt;/p&gt; </jats:p>

## Canonical Valuations and the Birational Section Conjecture

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We develop a notion of a `canonical $\mathcal{C}$-henselian valuation' for a class $\mathcal{C}$ of field extensions, generalizing the construction of the canonical henselian valuation of a field. We use this to show that the $p$-adic valuation on a finite extension $F$ of $\mathbb{Q}_p$ can be recovered entirely (or up to some indeterminacy of the residue field) from various small quotients of $G_F$, the absolute Galois group of $F$. In particular, it can be recovered fully from the maximal solvable quotient. We use this to prove several versions of the birational section conjecture for varieties over $p$-adic fields.

## Jet Latitude Regimes and the Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

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In recent years, numerical weather prediction models have begun to show notable levels of skill at predicting the average winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when initialised one month ahead. At the same time, these model predictions exhibit unusually low signal-to-noise ratios, in what has been dubbed a `signal-to-noise paradox'. We analyse both the skill and signal-to-noise ratio of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, in an ensemble hindcast experiment. Specifically, we examine the contribution to both from the regime dynamics of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. This is done by constructing a statistical model which captures the predictability inherent to to the trimodal jet latitude system, and fitting its parameters to reanalysis and IFS data. Predictability in this regime system is driven by interannual variations in the persistence of the jet latitude regimes, which determine the preferred state of the jet. We show that the IFS has skill at predicting such variations in persistence: because the position of the jet strongly influences the NAO, this automatically generates skill at predicting the NAO. We show that all of the skill the IFS has at predicting the winter NAO over the period 1980-2010 can be attributed to its skill at predicting regime persistence in this way. Similarly, the tendency of the IFS to underestimate regime persistence can account for the low signal-to-noise ratio, giving a possible explanation for the signal-to-noise paradox. Finally, we examine how external forcing drives variability in jet persistence, as well as highlight the role played by transient baroclinic eddy feedbacks to modulate regime persistence.

## On the shallow atmosphere approximation in finite element dynamical cores

ArXiv (0)

We provide an approach to implementing the shallow atmosphere approximation in three dimensional finite element discretisations for dynamical cores. The approach makes use of the fact that the shallow atmosphere approximation metric can be obtained by writing equations on a three-dimensional manifold embedded in $\mathbb{R}^4$ with a restriction of the Euclidean metric. We show that finite element discretisations constructed this way are equivalent to the use of a modified three dimensional mesh for the construction of metric terms. We demonstrate our approach via a convergence test for a prototypical elliptic problem.