Publications associated with Predictability of Weather and Climate

Anthropogenic influence on the 2018 summer warm spell in Europe: the impact of different spatio-temporal scales

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society 101 (2020) S41-S46

N Leach, S Li, S Sparrow, GJ Van Oldenborgh, FC Lott, A Weisheimer, Allen

We demonstrate that, in attribution studies, events defined over longer time scales generally produce higher probability ratios due to lower interannual variability, reconciling seemingly inconsistent attribution results of Europe’s 2018 summer heatwaves in reported studies.

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