Predictability Group Teams finish 1ST and 2ND in Weather Prediction Contest

In April 2018, the London investment fund Winton launched an academic contest for UK universities, aimed at predicting UK weather over a 6 month period. The purpose of the game was to predict, for each month from April to September, what the average UK surface temperature and total UK rainfall over the month would be. Predictions were made by buying shares in a `weather market’ platform, where a share could be bought representing arbitrary possible outcomes for each month. Teams therefore were both trying to obtain the best prediction of the weather as well as trading efficiently based on the actions taken by other teams involved. The contest therefore required both skilful weather predictions and effective trading strategies.
The predictability group entered two independent teams: by developing increasingly sophisticated forecasting/trading systems, these teams ended up claiming 1st and 2nd place, winning a total of 19000GBP for the group.
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