New paper showing how forecast skill of the winter NAO can vary throughout the last century

A new paper from our group which has been published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society presents evidence that seasonal forecast skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is non-stationary and undergoes multi-decadal variability when tested over very long past retrospective forecast sets. We performed such forecasts over the 20th Century with a state-of-the-art atmospheric circulation model and showed that positive forecast skill for the most recent decades, when the NAO was mostly in its positive phase, is not guarantee that the skill would be similarly high for other periods in the past or indeed the future.

Weisheimer, A., N. Schaller, C. O'Reilly, D. MacLeod and T. Palmer (2017). Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2976.