Publications


Seasonal Sensitivity of the Hadley Cell and Cross-Hemispheric Responses to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45 (2018) 2533-2541

HS Baker, C Mbengue, T Woollings


The benefits of global high-resolution for climate simulation: process-understanding and the enabling of stakeholder decisions at the regional scale.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2018)

MJ Roberts, PL Vidale, C Senior, HT Hewitt, C Bates, S Berthou, P Chang, HM Christensen, S Danilov, M-E Demory, SM Griffies, R Haarsma, T Jung, G Martin, S Minobe, T Ringler, M Satoh, R Schiemann, E Scoccimarro, G Stephens, MF Wehner


Higher CO<inf>2</inf>concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world

Nature Climate Change (2018) 1-5

HS Baker, RJ Millar, DJ Karoly, U Beyerle, BP Guillod, D Mitchell, H Shiogama, S Sparrow, T Woollings, MR Allen

© 2018 The Author(s) The Paris Agreement1aims to ‘pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.’ However, it has been suggested that temperature targets alone are insufficient to limit the risks associated with anthropogenic emissions2,3. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations, we show that atmospheric CO2increase—an even more predictable consequence of emissions than global temperature increase—has a significant direct impact on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature, heat stress, and tropical precipitation extremes. Hence in an iterative climate mitigation regime aiming solely for a specific temperature goal, an unexpectedly low climate response may have corresponding ‘dangerous’ changes in extreme events. The direct impact of higher CO2concentrations on climate extremes therefore substantially reduces the upper bound of the carbon budget, and highlights the need to explicitly limit atmospheric CO2concentration when formulating allowable emissions. Thus, complementing global mean temperature goals with explicit limits on atmospheric CO2concentrations in future climate policy would limit the adverse effects of high-impact weather extremes.


The impact of stochastic parametrisations on the representation of the Asian summer monsoon

CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50 (2018) 2269-2282

K Strommen, HM Christensen, J Berner, TN Palmer


Exploring the Atmosphere of Neoproterozoic Earth: The Effect of O-2 on Haze Formation and Composition

ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 858 (2018) ARTN 119

SM Horst, C He, MS Ugelow, AM Jellinek, RT Pierrehumbert, MA Tolbert


Finding Ocean States That Are Consistent with Observations from a Perturbed Physics Parameter Ensemble

Journal of Climate American Meteorological Society 31 (2018) 4639-4656

S Sparrow, RJ Millar, K Yamazaki, N Massey, AC Povey, A Bowery, RG Grainger, D Wallom, M Allen

A very large ensemble is used to identify subgrid-scale parameter settings for the HadCM3 model that are capable of best simulating the ocean state over the recent past (1980–2010). A simple particle filtering technique based upon the agreement of basin mean sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 700-m ocean heat content with EN3 observations is applied to an existing perturbed physics ensemble with initial conditions perturbations. A single set of subgrid-scale parameter values was identified from the wide range of initial parameter sets that gave the best agreement with ocean observations for the period studied. The parameter set, different from the standard model parameters, has a transient climate response of 1.68 K. The selected parameter set shows an improved agreement with EN3 decadal-mean SST patterns and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26°N as measured by the Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) array. Particle filtering techniques as demonstrated here could have a useful role in improving the starting point for traditional model-tuning exercises in coupled climate models.


Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 degrees C warmer world

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13 (2018) ARTN 054032

JS Hosking, D MacLeod, T Phillips, CR Holmes, P Watson, EF Shuckburgh, D Mitchell


Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 143 (2017) 2315-2339

M Leutbecher, S-J Lock, P Ollinaho, STK Lang, G Balsamo, P Bechtold, M Bonavita, HM Christensen, M Diamantakis, E Dutra, S English, M Fisher, RM Forbes, J Goddard, T Haiden, RJ Hogan, S Juricke, H Lawrence, D MacLeod, L Magnusson, S Malardel, S Massart, I Sandu, PK Smolarkiewicz, A Subramanian, F Vitart, N Wedi, A Weisheimer


The impact of stochastic physics on tropical rainfall variability in global climate models on daily to weekly time scales

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122 (2017) 5738-5762

PAG Watson, J Berner, S Corti, P Davini, J von Hardenberg, C Sanchez, A Weisheimer, TN Palmer


Ice-shelf damming in the glacial Arctic Ocean: dynamical regimes of a basin-covering kilometre-thick ice shelf

CRYOSPHERE 11 (2017) 1745-1765

J Nilsson, M Jakobsson, C Borstad, N Kirchner, G Bjork, RT Pierrehumbert, C Stranne


Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT 10 (2017) 1383-1402

P Davini, J von Hardenberg, S Corti, HM Christensen, S Juricke, A Subramanian, PAG Watson, A Weisheimer, TN Palmer


Stochastic Parameterization and El Nino-Southern Oscillation

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30 (2017) 17-38

HM Christensen, J Berner, DRB Coleman, TN Palmer


Introducing independent patterns into the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) scheme

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 143 (2017) 2168-2181

HM Christensen, S-J Lock, IM Moroz, TN Palmer


Systematic Errors in Weather and Climate Models: Nature, Origins, and Way Forward

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2017)

A Zadra, K Williams, A Frassoni, M Rixen, ÁF Adames, J Berner, F Bouyssel, B Casati, H Christensen, MB Ek, G Flato, Y Huang, F Judt, H Lin, E Maloney, W Merryfield, A van Niekerk, T Rackow, K Saito, N Wedi, P Yadav


Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12 (2017) ARTN 074001

JR Knight, A Maidens, PAG Watson, M Andrews, S Belcher, G Brunet, D Fereday, CK Folland, AA Scaife, J Slingo


STOCHASTIC PARAMETERIZATION Toward a New View of Weather and Climate Models

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 98 (2017) 565-587

J Berner, U Achatz, L Batte, L Bengtsson, A de la Camara, HM Christensen, M Colangeli, DRB Coleman, D Crommelin, SI Dolaptchiev, CLE Franzke, P Friederichs, P Imkeller, H Jarvinen, S Juricke, V Kitsios, F Lott, V Lucarini, S Mahajan, TN Palmer, C Penland, M Sakradzija, J-S von Storch, A Weisheimer, M Weniger, PD Williams, J-I Yano


Eddy-Driven Jet Sensitivity to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30 (2017) 6413-6431

HS Baker, T Woollings, C Mbengue


Observational evidence against strongly stabilizing tropical cloud feedbacks

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44 (2017) 1503-1510

IN Williams, RT Pierrehumbert


Linking the Climate and Thermal Phase Curve of 55 Cancri e

ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 849 (2017) ARTN 152

M Hammond, RT Pierrehumbert


Reconstructing Climate from Glaciers

ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES, VOL 45 45 (2017) 649-680

AN Mackintosh, BM Anderson, RT Pierrehumbert

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