Publications


Meat consumption, health, and the environment.

Science (New York, N.Y.) 361 (2018)

HCJ Godfray, P Aveyard, T Garnett, JW Hall, TJ Key, J Lorimer, RT Pierrehumbert, P Scarborough, M Springmann, SA Jebb

Both the global average per capita consumption of meat and the total amount of meat consumed are rising, driven by increasing average individual incomes and by population growth. The consumption of different types of meat and meat products has substantial effects on people's health, and livestock production can have major negative effects on the environment. Here, we explore the evidence base for these assertions and the options policy-makers have should they wish to intervene to affect population meat consumption. We highlight where more research is required and the great importance of integrating insights from the natural and social sciences.


Predicting the future is hard and other lessons from a population time series data science competition

ECOLOGICAL INFORMATICS 48 (2018) 1-11

GRW Humphries, C Che-Castaldo, PJ Bull, G Lipstein, A Ravia, B Carrion, T Bolton, A Ganguly, HJ Lynch


Uncertainty and scale interactions in ocean ensembles: From seasonal forecasts to multidecadal climate predictions

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2018)

L Zanna, JM Brankart, M Huber, S Leroux, T Penduff, PD Williams

© 2018 The Authors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society. The ocean plays an important role in the climate system on time-scales of weeks to centuries. Despite improvements in ocean models, dynamical processes involving multiscale interactions remain poorly represented, leading to errors in forecasts. We present recent advances in understanding, quantifying, and representing physical and numerical sources of uncertainty in novel regional and global ocean ensembles at different horizontal resolutions. At coarse resolution, uncertainty in 21st century projections of the upper overturning cell in the Atlantic is mostly a result of buoyancy fluxes, while the uncertainty in projections of the bottom cell is driven equally by both wind and buoyancy flux uncertainty. In addition, freshwater and heat fluxes are the largest contributors to Atlantic Ocean heat content regional projections and their uncertainties, mostly as a result of uncertain ocean circulation projections. At both coarse and eddy-permitting resolutions, unresolved stochastic temperature and salinity fluctuations can lead to significant changes in large-scale density across the Gulf Stream front, therefore leading to major changes in large-scale transport. These perturbations can have an impact on the ensemble spread on monthly time-scales and subsequently interact nonlinearly with the dynamics of the flow, generating chaotic variability on multiannual time-scales. In the Gulf Stream region, the ratio of chaotic variability to atmospheric-forced variability in meridional heat transport is larger than 50% on time-scales shorter than 2 years, while between 40 and 48°S the ratio exceeds 50% on on time-scales up to 28 years. Based on these simulations, we show that air–sea interaction and ocean subgrid eddies remain an important source of error for simulating and predicting ocean circulation, sea level, and heat uptake on a range of spatial and temporal scales. We discuss how further refinement of these ensembles can help us assess the relative importance of oceanic versus atmospheric uncertainty in weather and climate.


The Signature of Oceanic Processes in Decadal Extratropical SST Anomalies

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45 (2018) 7719-7730

CH O'Reilly, L Zanna


Recent multivariate changes in the North Atlantic climate system, with a focus on 2005-2016

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38 (2018) 5050-5076

J Robson, RT Sutton, A Archibald, F Cooper, M Christensen, LJ Gray, NP Holliday, C Macintosh, M McMillan, B Moat, M Russo, R Tilling, K Carslaw, D Desbruyeres, O Embury, DL Feltham, DP Grosvenor, S Josey, B King, A Lewis, GD McCarthy, C Merchant, AL New, CH O'Reilly, SM Osprey, K Read, A Scaife, A Shepherd, B Sinha, D Smeed, D Smith, A Ridout, T Woollings, M Yang


Exploring the Atmosphere of Neoproterozoic Earth: The Effect of O-2 on Haze Formation and Composition

ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 858 (2018) ARTN 119

SM Horst, C He, MS Ugelow, AM Jellinek, RT Pierrehumbert, MA Tolbert


Seasonal to annual ocean forecasting skill and the role of model and observational uncertainty.

Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Royal Meteorological Society (Great Britain) 144 (2018) 1947-1964

S Juricke, D MacLeod, A Weisheimer, L Zanna, TN Palmer

Accurate forecasts of the ocean state and the estimation of forecast uncertainties are crucial when it comes to providing skilful seasonal predictions. In this study we analyse the predictive skill and reliability of the ocean component in a seasonal forecasting system. Furthermore, we assess the effects of accounting for model and observational uncertainties. Ensemble forcasts are carried out with an updated version of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting model System 4, with a forecast length of ten months, initialized every May between 1981 and 2010. We find that, for essential quantities such as sea surface temperature and upper ocean 300 m heat content, the ocean forecasts are generally underdispersive and skilful beyond the first month mainly in the Tropics and parts of the North Atlantic. The reference reanalysis used for the forecast evaluation considerably affects diagnostics of forecast skill and reliability, throughout the entire ten-month forecasts but mostly during the first three months. Accounting for parametrization uncertainty by implementing stochastic parametrization perturbations has a positive impact on both reliability (from month 3 onwards) as well as forecast skill (from month 8 onwards). Skill improvements extend also to atmospheric variables such as 2 m temperature, mostly in the extratropical Pacific but also over the midlatitudes of the Americas. Hence, while model uncertainty impacts the skill of seasonal forecasts, observational uncertainty impacts our assessment of that skill. Future ocean model development should therefore aim not only to reduce model errors but to simultaneously assess and estimate uncertainties.


Global or Local Pure Condensible Atmospheres: Importance of Horizontal Latent Heat Transport

ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 867 (2018) ARTN 54

F Ding, RT Pierrehumbert


A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

EXPERIMENTAL ASTRONOMY 46 (2018) 135-209

G Tinetti, P Drossart, P Eccleston, P Hartogh, A Heske, J Leconte, G Micela, M Ollivier, G Pilbratt, L Puig, D Turrini, B Vandenbussche, P Wolkenberg, J-P Beaulieu, LA Buchave, M Ferus, M Griffin, M Guedel, K Justtanont, P-O Lagage, P Machado, G Malaguti, M Min, HU Norgaard-Nielsen, M Rataj, T Ray, I Ribas, M Swain, R Szabo, S Werner, J Barstow, M Burleigh, J Cho, VC du Foresto, A Coustenis, L Decin, T Encrenaz, M Galand, M Gillon, R Helled, J Carlos Morales, AG Munoz, A Moneti, I Pagano, E Pascale, G Piccioni, D Pinfield, S Sarkar, F Selsis, J Tennyson, A Triaud, O Venot, I Waldmann, D Waltham, G Wright, J Amiaux, J-L Augueres, M Berthe, N Bezawada, G Bishop, N Bowles, D Coffey, J Colome, M Crook, P-E Crouzet, V Da Peppo, IE Sanz, M Focardi, M Frericks, T Hunt, R Kohley, K Middleton, G Morgante, R Ottensamer, E Pace, C Pearson, R Stamper, K Symonds, M Rengel, E Renotte, P Ade, L Affer, C Alard, N Allard, F Altieri, Y Andre, C Arena, I Argyriou, A Aylward, C Baccani, G Bakos, M Banaszkiewicz, M Barlow, V Batista, G Bellucci, S Benatti, P Bernardi, B Bezard, M Blecka, E Bolmont, B Bonfond, R Bonito, AS Bonomo, JR Brucato, AS Brun, I Bryson, W Bujwan, S Casewell, B Charnay, CC Pestellini, G Chen, A Ciaravella, R Claudi, R Cledassou, M Damasso, M Damiano, C Danielski, P Deroo, AM Di Giorgio, C Dominik, V Doublier, S Doyle, R Doyon, B Drummond, B Duong, S Eales, B Edwards, M Farina, E Flaccomio, L Fletcher, F Forget, S Fossey, M Fraenz, Y Fujii, A Garcia-Piquer, W Gear, H Geoffray, JC Gerard, L Gesa, H Gomez, R Graczyk, C Griffith, D Grodent, MG Guarcello, J Gustin, K Hamano, P Hargrave, Y Hello, K Heng, E Herrero, A Hornstrup, B Hubert, S Ida, M Ikoma, N Iro, P Irwin, C Jarchow, J Jaubert, H Jones, Q Julien, S Kameda, F Kerschbaum, P Kervella, T Koskinen, M Krijger, N Krupp, M Lafarga, F Landini, E Lellouch, G Leto, A Luntzer, T Rank-Luftinger, A Maggio, J Maldonado, J-P Maillard, U Mall, J-B Marquette, S Mathis, P Maxted, T Matsuo, A Medvedev, Y Miguel, V Minier, G Morello, A Mura, N Narita, V Nascimbeni, N Nguyen Tong, V Noce, F Oliva, E Palle, P Palmer, M Pancrazzi, A Papageorgiou, V Parmentier, M Perger, A Petralia, S Pezzuto, R Pierrehumbert, I Pillitteri, G Piotto, G Pisano, L Prisinzano, A Radioti, J-M Reess, L Rezac, M Rocchetto, A Rosich, N Sanna, A Santerne, G Savini, G Scandariato, B Sicardy, C Sierra, G Sindoni, K Skup, I Snellen, M Sobiecki, L Soret, A Sozzetti, A Stiepen, A Strugarek, J Taylor, W Taylor, L Terenzi, M Tessenyi, A Tsiaras, C Tucker, D Valencia, G Vasisht, A Vazan, F Vilardell, S Vinatier, S Viti, R Waters, P Wawer, A Wawrzaszek, A Whitworth, YL Yung, SN Yurchenko, MR Zapatero Osorio, R Zellem, T Zingales, F Zwart


Wave-mean Flow Interactions in the Atmospheric Circulation of Tidally Locked Planets

ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 869 (2018) ARTN 65

M Hammond, RT Pierrehumbert


Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS 19 (2018) UNSP e815

D MacLeod, C O'Reilly, T Palmer, A Weisheimer


The Gulf Stream influence on wintertime North Atlantic jet variability

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 143 (2017) 173-183

CH O'Reilly, S Minobe, A Kuwano-Yoshida, T Woollings


Seasonal and decadal forecasts of Atlantic Sea surface temperatures using a linear inverse model

CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49 (2017) 1833-1845

B Huddart, A Subramanian, L Zanna, T Palmer


Ice-shelf damming in the glacial Arctic Ocean: dynamical regimes of a basin-covering kilometre-thick ice shelf

CRYOSPHERE 11 (2017) 1745-1765

J Nilsson, M Jakobsson, C Borstad, N Kirchner, G Bjork, RT Pierrehumbert, C Stranne


Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44 (2017) 5729-5738

CH O'Reilly, J Heatley, D MacLeod, A Weisheimer, TN Palmer, N Schaller, T Woollings


Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 143 (2017) 917-926

A Weisheimer, N Schaller, C O'Reilly, DA MacLeod, T Palmer


Scale-aware deterministic and stochastic parametrizations of eddy-mean flow interaction

OCEAN MODELLING 111 (2017) 66-80

L Zanna, PP Mana, J Anstey, T David, T Bolton


Observational evidence against strongly stabilizing tropical cloud feedbacks

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44 (2017) 1503-1510

IN Williams, RT Pierrehumbert


Linking the Climate and Thermal Phase Curve of 55 Cancri e

ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL 849 (2017) ARTN 152

M Hammond, RT Pierrehumbert


Reconstructing Climate from Glaciers

ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES, VOL 45 45 (2017) 649-680

AN Mackintosh, BM Anderson, RT Pierrehumbert

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