# Publications by PierGianLuca Porta Mana

## `Plausibilities of plausibilities': an approach through circumstances

(2006)

Probability-like parameters appearing in some statistical models, and their prior distributions, are reinterpreted through the notion of `circumstance', a term which stands for any piece of knowledge that is useful in assigning a probability and that satisfies some additional logical properties. The idea, which can be traced to Laplace and Jaynes, is that the usual inferential reasonings about the probability-like parameters of a statistical model can be conceived as reasonings about equivalence classes of `circumstances' - viz., real or hypothetical pieces of knowledge, like e.g. physical hypotheses, that are useful in assigning a probability and satisfy some additional logical properties - that are uniquely indexed by the probability distributions they lead to.

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