Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world
Nature Energy Springer Nature (2024)
Abstract:
The production and use of fossil fuels need to decline rapidly to limit global warming. Although global net-zero scenarios abound, the associated development ramifications for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries (LLMICs), as well as adequate international responses, have been underexplored. Here we conceptualize that, depending on country context, three types of development transition follow from declining fossil fuel production and use for LLMIC producers, namely an energy transition, an economic transition and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. We propose a classification of these transitions, arguing that heterogeneity in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development. We illustrate this by discussing different cases of fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, focusing on Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola. We conclude by detailing context-specific international support portfolios to foster low-carbon development in fossil fuel-producing LLMICs, and call for a re-orientation of international support along principles of global solidarity.Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Earth System Science Data Copernicus Publications 15:6 (2023) 2295-2327
Extended producer responsibility for fossil fuels *
Environmental Research Letters IOP Publishing 18:1 (2023) 011005-011005
Abstract:
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Energy policy faces a triple challenge: increasing resilience and guaranteeing the security of supply of both fossil and non-fossil energy, minimising the impact on consumer energy prices, and retaining consistency with Paris Agreement climate goals. High prices and producer rents, however, also present an opportunity: to open a conversation about applying the principle of extended producer responsibility (EPR) to fossil fuels. We demonstrate that this could deconflict energy security and climate policy at an affordable cost by stopping fossil fuels from causing further global warming. Implementing EPR through a combination of geological CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> storage and nature-based solutions can deliver net zero at comparable or lower costs than conventional scenarios driven with a global carbon price and subject to constraints on CO<jats:sub>2</jats:sub> storage deployment. It would also mean that the principal beneficiary of high fossil fuel prices, the fossil fuel industry itself, plays its part in addressing the climate challenge while reducing the risk of asset stranding.</jats:p>Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C
Nature Climate Change Springer Science and Business Media LLC (2023)
The Multi-Decadal Response to Net Zero CO2 Emissions and Implications for Emissions Policy
Geophysical Research Letters 49:23 (2022)