Publications by Myles Allen


Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate

Nature 388 (1997) 563-567

RT Sutton, RT Sutton, MR Allen

The weather at middle latitudes is largely unpredictable more than a week or so in advance, whereas fluctuations in the ocean may be predictable over much longer timescales. If decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature could be predicted, it might be possible to exploit their influence on the atmosphere to forecast decadal fluctuations in climate. Here we report analyses of shipboard observations that indicate significant decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature, arising from the advective propagation of sea-surface-temperature anomalies and the existence of a regular period of 12-14 years in the propagating signals. The same timescale can be identified in a dipole-like pattern of North Atlantic sea-level pressure variability. We propose a mechanism which may connect these oceanic and atmospheric fluctuations, possibly as part of a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode of variability. Our results are encouraging for the prospects of forecasting natural fluctuations in the climate of the North Atlantic region several years in advance.


Distinguishing modulated oscillations from coloured noise in multivariate datasets

Climate Dynamics 12 (1996) 775-784

MR Allen, MR Allen, MR Allen, AW Robertson

Extended empirical orthogonal functions (EEOFs), alternatively known as multi-channel singular systems (or singular spectrum) analysis (MSSA), provide a natural method of extracting oscillatory modes of variability from multivariate data. The eigen-functions of some simple non-oscillatory noise processes are, however, also solutions to the wave equation, so the occurrence of stable, wave-like patterns in EEOF/MSSA is not sufficient grounds for concluding that data exhibits oscillations. We present a generalisation of the "Monte Carlo SSA" algorithm which allows an objective test for the presence of oscillations at low signal-to-noise ratios in multivariate data. The test is similar to those used in standard regression, examining directions in state-space to determine whether they contain more variance than would be expected if the noise null-hypothesis were valid. We demonstrate the application of the test to the analysis of interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures.


CONTROL OF TROPICAL INSTABILITY WAVES IN THE PACIFIC

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 22 (1995) 2581-2584

M ALLEN, S LAWRENCE, M MURRAY, C MUTLOW, T STOCKDALE, D LLEWELLYNJONES, D ANDERSON


Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability

Geophysical Research Letters 21 (1994) 883-886

MR Allen, LA Smith

An analysis of the 130-year record of the Earth's global mean temperature reveals a significant warming trend and a residual consistent with an autocorrelated ("red') noise process whose predictability decays with a timescale of two years. Thus global temperatures, in isolation, do not indicate oscillations at 95% confidence against a red noise null hypothesis. Weak signals identified in the global series can, however, be traced to significant sea surface temperature oscillations in the equatorial Atlantic (period ~10 years) and the El Nino region of the Pacific (3-5 years). No robust evidence is found in this data for interdecadal oscillations. -from Authors


CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 99 (1994) 3707-3716

A SINHA, M ALLEN


GLOBAL CHANGE DETECTION

NATURE 370 (1994) 24-25

M ALLEN, C MUTLOW, G BLUMBERG, J CHRISTY, R MCNIDER, D LLEWELLYNJONES


EMPIRICAL PARAMETERIZATION OF TROPICAL OCEAN ATMOSPHERE COUPLING - THE INVERSE GILL PROBLEM

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 6 (1993) 509-530

M ALLEN, M DAVEY


Temperature oscillations [6]

Nature 359 (1992) 679-

MR Allen, PL Read, LA Smith


TEMPERATURE TIME-SERIES

NATURE 355 (1992) 686-686

MR ALLEN, PL READ, LA SMITH


PROPOSED INDEX OF GLOBAL WARMING EFFECT PUTS CO2S SHARE TO OVER 70-PERCENT

ENERGY POLICY 18 (1990) 485-486

M ALLEN


Modelling climate change

Energy Policy 18 (1990) 681-682

MR Allen


Have the odds of warm November temperatures and of cold December temperatures in Central England changed?

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NR Massey, T Aina, C Rye, FEL Otto, S Wilson, RG Jones, MR Allen


Climate Change Liability: Transnational Law and Practice

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Book chapter "The scientific basis for climate change liability"

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