Publications by Myles Allen


Distinguishing modulated oscillations from coloured noise in multivariate datasets

Climate Dynamics 12 (1996) 775-784

MR Allen, MR Allen, MR Allen, AW Robertson

Extended empirical orthogonal functions (EEOFs), alternatively known as multi-channel singular systems (or singular spectrum) analysis (MSSA), provide a natural method of extracting oscillatory modes of variability from multivariate data. The eigen-functions of some simple non-oscillatory noise processes are, however, also solutions to the wave equation, so the occurrence of stable, wave-like patterns in EEOF/MSSA is not sufficient grounds for concluding that data exhibits oscillations. We present a generalisation of the "Monte Carlo SSA" algorithm which allows an objective test for the presence of oscillations at low signal-to-noise ratios in multivariate data. The test is similar to those used in standard regression, examining directions in state-space to determine whether they contain more variance than would be expected if the noise null-hypothesis were valid. We demonstrate the application of the test to the analysis of interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures.


CONTROL OF TROPICAL INSTABILITY WAVES IN THE PACIFIC

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 22 (1995) 2581-2584

M ALLEN, S LAWRENCE, M MURRAY, C MUTLOW, T STOCKDALE, D LLEWELLYNJONES, D ANDERSON


Investigating the origins and significance of low-frequency modes of climate variability

Geophysical Research Letters 21 (1994) 883-886

MR Allen, LA Smith

An analysis of the 130-year record of the Earth's global mean temperature reveals a significant warming trend and a residual consistent with an autocorrelated ("red') noise process whose predictability decays with a timescale of two years. Thus global temperatures, in isolation, do not indicate oscillations at 95% confidence against a red noise null hypothesis. Weak signals identified in the global series can, however, be traced to significant sea surface temperature oscillations in the equatorial Atlantic (period ~10 years) and the El Nino region of the Pacific (3-5 years). No robust evidence is found in this data for interdecadal oscillations. -from Authors


CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND TROPICAL MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 99 (1994) 3707-3716

A SINHA, M ALLEN


GLOBAL CHANGE DETECTION

NATURE 370 (1994) 24-25

M ALLEN, C MUTLOW, G BLUMBERG, J CHRISTY, R MCNIDER, D LLEWELLYNJONES


EMPIRICAL PARAMETERIZATION OF TROPICAL OCEAN ATMOSPHERE COUPLING - THE INVERSE GILL PROBLEM

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 6 (1993) 509-530

M ALLEN, M DAVEY


Temperature oscillations [6]

Nature 359 (1992) 679-

MR Allen, PL Read, LA Smith


TEMPERATURE TIME-SERIES

NATURE 355 (1992) 686-686

MR ALLEN, PL READ, LA SMITH


PROPOSED INDEX OF GLOBAL WARMING EFFECT PUTS CO2S SHARE TO OVER 70-PERCENT

ENERGY POLICY 18 (1990) 485-486

M ALLEN


Modelling climate change

Energy Policy 18 (1990) 681-682

MR Allen


Have the odds of warm November temperatures and of cold December temperatures in Central England changed?

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NR Massey, T Aina, C Rye, FEL Otto, S Wilson, RG Jones, MR Allen


Climate Change Liability: Transnational Law and Practice

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Book chapter "The scientific basis for climate change liability"

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