Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions.

Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 365 (2007) 2179-2191

A Troccoli, TN Palmer

Sensitivity experiments using a coupled model initialized from analysed atmospheric and oceanic observations are used to investigate the potential for interannual-to-decadal predictability. The potential for extending seasonal predictions to longer time scales is explored using the same coupled model configuration and initialization procedure as used for seasonal prediction. It is found that, despite model drift, climatic signals on interannual-to-decadal time scales appear to be detectable. Two climatic states have been chosen: one starting in 1965, i.e. ahead of a period of global cooling, and the other in 1994, ahead of a period of global warming. The impact of initial conditions and of the different levels of greenhouse gases are isolated in order to gain insights into the source of predictability.

Seasonal Forecast Datasets - A resource for Calibrating Regional Climate Change Projections?

CLIVAR Exchanges 43 (2007) 6-7

TN Palmer, FJ Doblas-Reyes, A Weisheimer, M Rodwell

Initialisation strategies for decadal hindcasts for the 1960-2005 period within the ENSEMBLES project. ECMWF Tech Memo.

(2007) 521

A Weisheimer, FJ Doblas-Reyes, P Rogel, N Keenlyside, MA Balmaseda, J Murphy, D Smith, M Collins, B Bhaskaran, TN Palmer

Recent Advances in Radiation Transfer Parametrizations. ECMWF Tech Memo.

(2007) 539

J-J Morcrette, P Bechtold, A Beljaars, A Weisheimer

Historical Overview of Climate Change Science

in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1: The Physical Basis of Climate Change, (2007) 1

H Le Treut, R Somerville, A Weisheimer

Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP

Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007)

F Vitart, MR Huddleston, M Déqué, D Peake, TN Palmer, TN Stockdale, MK Davey, MK Davey, S Ineson, A Weisheimer

Most seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm numbers are produced using statistical-empirical models. However, forecasts can also be made using numerical models which encode the laws of physics, here referred to as "dynamical models". Based on 12 years of re-forecasts and 2 years of real-time forecasts, we show that the so-called EUROSIP (EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction) multi-model ensemble of coupled ocean atmosphere models has substantial skill in probabilistic prediction of the number of Atlantic tropical storms. The EUROSIP real-time forecasts correctly distinguished between the exceptional year of 2005 and the average hurricane year of 2006. These results have implications for the reliability of climate change predictions of tropical cyclone activity using similar dynamically-based coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis

Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007)

MA Balmaseda, GC Smith, K Haines, D Anderson, TN Palmer, A Vidard

A reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) for the period 1959-2006 has been derived from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis. The reconstruction shows a wide range of time-variability, including a downward trend. At 26N, both the MOC intensity and changes in its vertical structure are in good agreement with previous estimates based on trans-Atlantic surveys. At 50N, the MOC and strength of the subpolar gyre are correlated at interannual time scales, but show opposite secular trends. Heat transport variability is highly correlated with the MOC but shows a smaller trend due to the warming of the upper ocean, which partially compensates for the weakening of the circulation. Results from sensitivity experiments show that although the time-varying upper boundary forcing provides useful MOC information, the sequential assimilation of ocean data further improves the MOC estimation by increasing both the mean and the time variability. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Convective forcing fluctuations in a cloud-resolving model: Relevance to the stochastic parameterization problem

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 20 (2007) 187-202

GJ Shutts, TN Palmer

Daily Forecast Skill of Multi-Center Grand Ensemble

SOLA 3 (2007) 29-32

M Matsueda, M Kyouda, HL Tanaka, T Tsuyuki

How good is an ensemble an capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 133 (2007) 1309-1325

K Judd, LA Smith, LA Smith, A Weisheimer, A Weisheimer

Ensemble prediction systems aim to account for uncertainties of initial conditions and model error. Ensemble forecasting is sometimes viewed as a method of obtaining (objective) probabilistic forecasts. How is one to judge the quality of an ensemble at forecasting a system? The probability that the bounding box of an ensemble captures some target (such as 'truth' in a perfect model scenario) provides new statistics for quantifying the quality of an ensemble prediction system: information that can provide insight all the way from ensemble system design to user decision support. These simple measures clarify basic questions, such as the minimum size of an ensemble. To illustrate their utility, bounding boxes are used in the imperfect model context to quantify the differences between ensemble forecasting with a stochastic model ensemble prediction system and a deterministic model prediction system. Examining forecasts via their bounding box statistics provides an illustration of how adding stochastic terms to an imperfect model may improve forecasts even when the underlying system is deterministic. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society.

Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming (vol 32, art no L20721, 2005)


A Weisheimer, TN Palmer

Multi-Center Grand Ensemble using Three Operational Ensemble Forecasts

SOLA Meteorological Society of Japan 2 (2006) 33-36

M Matsueda, M Kyouda, HL Tanaka, T Tsuyuki

In this study, we investigate the impact of Multi-Center Grand Ensemble (MCGE) forecasts, consisting of three operational ensemble forecasts by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the Canadian Meteorological Center. We verified the skill of MCGE forecasts in comparison with that of JMA ensemble forecast using root mean square error, anomaly correlation, and Brier skill score for 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa temperature in the Northern Hemisphere (20°N-90°N) in September 2005.Our results show that MCGE forecasts are more skillful than single-center ensemble forecast without considering weight among ensemble members and bias corrections. This implies that considering weight or bias corrections may result in further improvement of MCGE forecasts, specifically in probabilistic forecasts.

Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts


FJ Doblas-Reyes, R Hagedorn, TN Palmer, JJ Morcrette

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles

NATURE 439 (2006) 576-579

MC Thomson, FJ Doblas-Reyes, SJ Mason, R Hagedorn, SJ Connor, T Phindela, AP Morse, TN Palmer

Developments in dynamical seasonal forecasting relevant to agricultural management

CLIMATE RESEARCH 33 (2006) 19-26

FJ Doblas-Reyes, R Hagedorn, TN Palmer

Erratum: "Changing frequency of occurrence of extreme seasonal temperatures under global warming" (Geophysical Research Letters (2005) vol. 32 10.1029/2005GL023365)

Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006)

A Weisheimer, A Weisheimer, TN Palmer

Multi-center grand ensemble using three operational ensemble forecasts

SOLA 2 (2006) 33-36


Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications.

Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360 (2005) 1991-1998

TN Palmer, FJ Doblas-Reyes, R Hagedorn, A Weisheimer

The development of multi-model ensembles for reliable predictions of inter-annual climate fluctuations and climate change, and their application to health, agronomy and water management, are discussed.

The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination


FJ Doblas-Reyes, R Hagedorn, TN Palmer

More power needed to probe cloud systems

NATURE 434 (2005) 271-271

TN Palmer