Towards the Prototype Probabilistic Earth-System Model for Climate Prediction
Handling model-related uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts
People: Antje Weisheimer, Tim Palmer, David MacLeod
We are part of the FP7 project SPECS (Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services) and lead the workpackage 4.4. on Addressing Model Inadequacy. SPECS intends to develop the new generation of European operational seasonal-to-decadal climate forecast systems for the production of reliable, local climate information at the global scale. SPECS is a collaborative project with 20 partners from Europe and Brazil and is part of a cluster of European projects that will provide a coordinated response to the societal need for climate services.
PRIMAVERA: Process-based climate simulation: advances in high-resolution modelling and European climate risk assessment
PRIMAVERA is funded through the European Commission Horizon 2020 framework, and involves 19 partners across Europe. The aim of the project is to “develop a new generation of advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution global climate models, capable of simulating and predicting regional climate with unprecedented fidelity”.
The University of Oxford is involved in the work package “Frontiers of Climate Modelling”, and will investigate the use of stochastic parameterisations to represent the variability of unresolved sub-grid scale processes. Of particular interest is the extent to which stochastic physics can be used to represent small-scale components of the circulation that might otherwise be too expensive to resolve.